As we hit the mid-way mark of the election campaign, a recent survey says that there’s no clear frontrunner but the race has tightened.
Conducted online by Research Co., a BC-based data analysis and survey firm, 45% (up 1% from poll done in September) of decided voters say they would vote for the BC New Democratic Party (NDP), while 44% (+2%) would vote for the Conservative Party of BC.
The BC Green Party is third with 9% (-1%) of votes, while 2% (-1%) of voters would vote for other parties or independent candidates.
According to the survey results, the race has tightened across all regions, with NDPs leading the Conservatives in Metro Vancouver with 49% to 44%, and Vancouver Island with 42% to 37%.
However, in Fraser Valley, Southern BC and Northern BC, the Conservatives are ahead of the NDPs with 48% to 43%, 47% to 42%, and 47% to 36%, respectively.
In terms of how each candidate is performing, there was little fluctuation in the approval ratings of the three party leaders.
Below are the approval rate stats from the latest survey compared to those of last month’s poll:
- David Eby – BC NDP: 52% approval (up from 51% in September)
- John Rustad – Conservative Party of BC: 45% approval (down from 48% in September)
- Sonia Furstenau – BC Green Party: 42% approval (up from 41% in September)
In terms of issue management, Rustad is ahead of Eby regarding abilities to handle crime and public safety, and Furstenau is ahead of both parties in terms of the environment.
Eby maintains the upper hand over Rustad on health care, the economy, education, housing, homelessness and poverty, transportation projects, accountability, child care and seniors care.
Rustad and Eby are practically even where creating jobs, energy and dealing with municipal governments is concerned, with Eby ahead of Rustad by just three points.
They are tied with 35% on being the best person to manage the province’s finances.
338 Canada says that the Conservatives are leading the polls with 46% of the popular vote, the NDPs have 44% of the vote, and the Greens have 9%.
If these poll results were to be accurate, they would represent the Conservatives winning 47 seats in the legislature, the NDPs winning 45, and the Greens would win one seat.
To win a majority government in BC, a party must win at least 47 seats.
According to 388 Canada, these seat projections are a forecast of the most likely results if a general election were held today.
The BC election will take place on October 19th.
