Here’s where Canadians stand ahead of the next federal election

With Canada’s next federal election on the horizon—but no official date set—many voters are still weighing their options, particularly as the Liberal Party prepares to select a new leader on March 9th.

A recent poll from Research Co. sheds light on how Canadians are feeling about the country’s political landscape and where they might lean when it’s time to cast their ballots.

According to the survey, about one-in-four Canadians (23%) who were previously leaning toward voting for the Conservative Party are now reconsidering their stance.

The resignation of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has prompted these voters to hold off on making a decision until they see what the next Liberal leader brings to the table.

As it stands, the electorate remains split: 30% of respondents are firm in their support for the Conservatives, while 32% are certain they will vote against them. Meanwhile, 16% remain undecided.

Research Co. President Mario Canseco noted that prior to Trudeau stepping down, Conservative support was strong in key provinces like British Columbia and Ontario. Now, about one-in-four voters in these provinces are reassessing their choices.

When it comes to Pierre Poilievre’s leadership, Canadians appear divided. The poll found nearly equal numbers believe he is better or worse than former centre-right party leaders Stockwell Day, Andrew Scheer, and Erin O’Toole. However, when compared to Stephen Harper, 32% see Poilievre as a downgrade, while 20% believe he is an improvement.

Among those who backed the Conservatives in the 2021 federal election, Poilievre is viewed more favourably than O’Toole (50%), Scheer (48%), and Day (45%), but just 31% consider him better than Harper.

Canadians were also asked which key policy areas they believe would improve under Poilievre’s leadership. The top five issues where he scored the highest were:

• Immigration (34%)
• The economy and jobs (33%)
• Energy and pipelines (33%)
• Crime and public safety (31%)
• Trade and Canada’s relationship with the U.S. (31%)

However, fewer respondents believe he would make a positive impact in areas such as foreign affairs (30%), accountability and leadership (30%), housing and poverty (27%), health care (24%), and the environment (23%).

When asked to describe Poilievre in six words, the most common response was “arrogant” (40%), followed by “intelligent” (33%), “strong” (32%), “efficient” (26%), “dishonest” (25%), and “uncaring” (25%). These perceptions have shifted slightly since a similar poll conducted in April 2023, with Poilievre gaining in the “strong” and “efficient” categories but also seeing a slight rise in the “uncaring” descriptor.

As the Liberals prepare to elect their new leader, former Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney appears to be the front-runner in public perception, with 43% of Canadians viewing him favourably. His support is strongest among those aged 55 and over (53%), as well as in British Columbia (50%) and Quebec (44%).

Other Liberal leadership contenders have lower favourability ratings:

• Chrystia Freeland (38%)
• Karina Gould (21%)
• Ruby Dhalla (17%)
• Frank Baylis (16%)

Canadians were also asked which candidate is best suited to handle various policy areas, with Carney leading in all categories, particularly in economic management, accountability, and trade relations. However, a large portion of Canadians (38% to 47%) couldn’t pick a candidate they trusted most on key issues.

While an election has yet to be called, it’s widely expected that Canadians will head to the polls sometime after the Liberal leadership race concludes.

Until then, many voters appear to be taking a wait-and-see approach, watching how both the Conservatives and Liberals position themselves before making up their minds.

The Research Co. poll was conducted online between February 3rd and February 5th, among 1,001 adults in Canada. The data was weighted to reflect census demographics for age, gender, and region. The margin of error is +/- 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.