The Canadian federal election will take place this Monday, April 28th, and as of this publication, the Liberal Party of Canada continues to lead in the federal polls.
338 Canada’s latest projection of the federal election’s outcome predicts the Liberals will win a majority government with 42% of the popular vote, which could earn them approximately 186 seats.
Given Canada has 343 ridings, a party must win at least 172 seats to form a majority government.
The Conservative Party of Canada is trailing just behind the Liberals with a projected 38% of the popular vote, which could earn them around 125 seats.
If the Liberals win the election and the Conservatives win the second most number of seats, they will once again become the official Opposition in the House of Commons.
According to 338Canada, the New Democratic Party (NDP) is projected to win 9% of the popular vote which could garner them seven seats.
Meanwhile, the Bloc Québécois are predicted to win only 6% of the popular vote across Canada. However, because they run only in Quebec, they could win more seats than the NDP with 338Canada predicting they will win 24 seats in the House of Commons.
The Green Party of Canada has a large following on Vancouver Island and some other ridings in Canada, but as of this publication, they are only predicted to win 2% of the popular vote on Monday.
If the projections are accurate, they are predicted to win just one seat.
BC as a whole is projected to be a win for the Liberals, with 338Canada predicting they will win 23 of British Columbia’s ridings, the Conservatives are predicted to win 19, the NDP are predicted to win one, and the Greens are predicted to win no ridings.
In Vancouver Island’s seven ridings, 338Canada has made the following predictions:
- Victoria: Liberal leaning
- Saanich–Gulf Islands: Toss up between Conservatives and Greens
- Esquimalt–Saanich–Sooke: Toss up between Conservatives, NDP and Liberals
- Cowichan–Malahat–Langford: Conservatives likely
- Courtenay–Alberni: Conservatives likely
- Nanaimo–Ladysmith: Conservative leaning
- North Island–Powell River: Conservatives are safe
To see specifics of each of these ridings, click here.
Advanced voting ended earlier this week and the turnout to the early ballot boxes shattered records with 7.3 million Canadians voting in the advanced polls.
Those who did not vote early will have to cast their ballot on Monday, April 28th.
On Monday, the ballots will be counted and the results should be known sometime in the evening.
