With Christmas fast-approaching, temperatures across Greater Victoria are trending cooler and Environment Canada forecasts are beginning to hint at the possibility of snow in the days leading up to the holiday.
While an official forecast for Christmas Day has not yet been issued, weather models suggest a shift toward colder and more unsettled conditions this week.
That shift leaves the door open for a “white Christmas” on December 25th.
According to Environment Canada, Tuesday is expected to bring daytime highs near 6°C with a chance of showers. Overnight temperatures could dip to around 1°C, with rain showers or flurries possible.
Conditions are expected to remain cool on Christmas Eve, with daytime highs around 5°C and a continued chance of showers.
Some private forecasting apps, including iPhone weather, are currently suggesting a higher chance of snow between Friday and Monday.
Those projections are based on weather models and are not part of Environment Canada’s official forecast. Conditions can change quickly, especially for southern Vancouver Island.
Forecasters note that snow predictions for the southern Vancouver Island are often challenging. Slight changes in temperature can determine whether precipitation falls as rain or snow, particularly in Victoria’s mild coastal climate.
A white Christmas is defined as having at least two centimetres of snow on the ground on Christmas morning. In Victoria, that scenario is uncommon.
Climate records show the region experiences a white Christmas only occasionally, with odds well below 20%.
One of the most memorable snowy periods in recent history occurred during the winter of 1996, when multiple storms brought significant snowfall to parts of southern Vancouver Island in the days leading up to Christmas.
While snow does fall in late December from time to time, it often melts quickly or falls as rain at lower elevations. That makes lasting snow cover on Christmas Day rare in the capital region.
At this point, it is too early to say whether Victoria will see snow on Christmas Day; however, the combination of cooler temperatures and incoming moisture increases the possibility of wintery weather somewhere on southern Vancouver Island in the coming days.
Environment Canada is expected to refine the Christmas forecast later this week.
