With Prime Minister Mark Carney triggering a snap election that is just five weeks away, candidates on Vancouver Island have hit the ground running.
In the last federal election, six of seven electoral districts were won by the NDP, with Green Party leader, Elizabeth May winning one of those ridings.
However, since the provincial election in October 2024, there has been an influx in support for Conservative initiatives on the island which may sway some voters and some of the incumbent MPs representing Vancouver Island risings are retiring from politics which could shake things up.
Candidates wasted no time over the weekend with election signs already lining the Pat Bay and Trans-Canada Highways surrounding Victoria.
Though candidates still have to go through a declaration process before the election, many have already expressed they will be running.
For the NDP on the south island, Laurel Collins will be running for re-election in the Victoria electoral district, Saanich Councillor Colin Plant has taken over for Saanich and the Gulf Islands and Maja Tait has succeeded Randall Garrison in the Esquimalt—Saanich—Sooke riding.
Elizabeth May will once again be running in the for Saanich and the Gulf Islands riding.
The Conservatives have also wasted no time getting their candidates names and faces out there with Cathie Ounsted already having election signs lining the roadways of Saanich and the Gulf Islands.
Historically, across the whole of Vancouver Island, the NDP have won the majority of the popular vote in six of the seven last elections, dating back to 2008 and the formation of the Conservative Party.
In the 2021 federal election, they garnered 37% of votes on Vancouver Island, with the Conservatives taking 25.7% of the vote, the Liberals taking 17.8% and the Greens only taking 14.6%.
The last time a riding on Vancouver Island has been won by a Liberal candidate was in 2008, and the last time a Conservative candidate had won a seat for Vancouver Island was 2011, with neither party managing to beat out the NDP and Greens since then.
As of this publication, polls by 388Canada predict a Liberal win in this election; however, they forecast a tight race with the Conservative Party.
In BC as a whole, these polls predict the Conservatives will win the popular vote and the most seats, with the Liberals winning the second most.
Surprisingly, this poll predicts the NDP will only take 15% of the popular vote when currently, they hold the most BC seats in the House of Commons.
Right now in BC, the NDP hold 47 seats, the Conservatives have 41, the Greens have two and there are three Independents.
As candidates are officially declared and embark on the campaign trail over the next five weeks, much could change in the polls.
General voting day has been slated for Monday, April 28th, though advance voting will be available beforehand.
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