It’s that time of year when meteorologists deliver either good or bad news – and of course, the reaction depends on whether you’re hoping for snow or dreading the thought of shovelling.
With just over a week left until Christmas Day, weather forecasts and snowfall projections are beginning to take shape, though they’re not final yet.
While we may have a good idea of the possibilities, the weather for December 25th is still a mystery. For the record, most weather agencies require at least 2 cm of snow on the ground at 7 a.m. on Christmas Day to officially declare a white Christmas.
Environment and Climate Change Canada’s long-range forecast doesn’t yet include December 25th, and it won’t until December 19th. But the agency’s data from the last 69 years can give us some insight into where snow is more likely to make an appearance.
So, what are the chances of a white Christmas in Victoria?
Unfortunately, they’re slim. According to Environment Canada, Victoria has just a 13% chance of snow on Christmas Day. If you’re dreaming of waking up to a snow-covered city, you might be out of luck this year.
For those who prefer a Christmas morning with little to no chance of shovelling, BC has historically been the place for green Christmases.
Over the past seven decades, BC has seen more snow-free Decembers than anywhere else in Canada. In fact, cities like Vancouver (62 years) and Victoria (60 years) have consistently enjoyed snowless holidays, with Penticton not far behind (46 years).
In comparison, cities like Toronto and Windsor, while colder, only saw snowless Christmases 39 times in that period.
Farmer’s Almanac agrees with the outlook, predicting a “not a chance” of snow for Victoria this Christmas. But don’t worry, not everyone’s in the same boat—on the Atlantic side of Canada, there’s a better chance of waking up to a white Christmas.
No weather report would be complete without a mention of the Weather Network, right?
According to them, a snowy Christmas morning is almost guaranteed across Canada’s northern territories and the Prairies. Cities like Ottawa and Montreal also see snow more often than not. However, it’s a bit of a coin-flip for some big cities like Toronto, where snow on Christmas Day can go either way.
While last year’s El Niño created a warmer-than-normal pattern, leaving much of the country with a green Christmas, this year’s forecast is looking a little different. The Weather Network expecting a neutral pattern in the Pacific Ocean—perhaps even tilting toward a La Niña-type situation—which should be more favourable for snow. However, with the storm track still uncertain, the weather agency says it’s too early to predict exactly what will happen on Christmas Day.
While no specific details were released on Victoria, they did give Vancouver an 11% chance of snow on Christmas.
So, as of right now, if you’re dreaming of a white Christmas, you may have better luck in other parts of Canada.
With a 13% chance of snow and an overwhelmingly green outlook for Victoria, it seems the odds are against it. But don’t lose hope just yet—there’s still time for the weather to surprise us.
Who knows, we may get a little festive snowfall after all! Are you a fan of snow on Christmas day? Let us know in the comment section below.
