Tomorrow is the final voting day for British Columbians to cast their ballots.
As of this publication, 338Canada’s polls show the race is tight between the BC NDP and Conservative Party of BC, with the BC Green Party trailing significantly, but it’s looking like the former may have the advantage.
Looking at the popular vote polls, the BC NDP have 45%, the Conservatives have 43% and the BC Greens have 10%.
Despite the BC NDP and Conservatives being neck-and-neck in terms of the popular vote, the odds appear to be in the BC NDP’s favour overall.
According to 338Canada’s polls, the BC NDP have a 74% chance of winning the most seats, while the Conservatives have only a 24% chance and the BC Greens have less than 1%.
Similarly, 338Canada calculated the odds of the election’s outcome which indicates the BC NDP have a 69% chance of forming a majority government, the Conservatives have only a 20% chance and the BC Greens have a 0% chance.
For a party to form a majority government, they need to win 47 seats, or electoral districts. Currently, 338Canada is predicting the BC NDP will win between 38 and 63, with a median of 50.5.
For the Conservatives, 338Canada is predicting between 30 and 51 seats will be won, with a median of 40.5—giving their opponents the upper hand.
Related:
There are 93 electoral districts in BC and 15 of those are on Vancouver Island. Here is how 338Canada predicts each of those ridings will vote tomorrow:
- Courtenay-Comox: BC NDP likely
- Cowichan Valley: BC NDP leaning
- Esquimalt-Colwood: BC NDP safe
- Juan de Fuca-Malahat: BC NDP safe
- Ladysmith-Oceanside: Toss up between BC NDP (39%) and Conservatives (42%)
- Langford-Highlands: BC NDP safe
- Mid Island-Pacific Rim: BC NDP safe
- Nanaimo-Gabriola Island: BC NDP safe
- Nanaimo-Lantzville: Toss up between BC NDP and Conservatives (both 43%)
- North Island: Toss up between BC NDP (43%) and Conservatives (44%)
- Oak Bay-Gordon Head: BC NDP likely
- Saanich North and the Islands: BC Green likely
- Saanich South: BC NDP safe
- Victoria-Beacon Hill: BC Green leaning
- Victoria-Swan Lake: BC NDP safe
According to BC Elections, records have already been set at the polls with more people than ever before casting their ballots early.
As of Wednesday, October 16th, BC Elections accounted for 1,001,331 people who had voted in advance polls, making up over 28% of registered voters.
Polls will be open from 8 a.m. to 8 p.m. on final voting day and BC residents can vote at any polling station, regardless of whether it’s outside their electoral district or not.
